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Market Commentary

Baron Focused Growth Fund: Latest Insights and Commentary

Review & Outlook

As of 12/31/2025

U.S. equities delivered a steady finish to an otherwise turbulent year in the fourth quarter of 2025, with moderate gains across most indexes amid easing economic pressures and holiday-season stability. Large caps outperformed, while mid caps lagged and small caps delivered more modest advances. Market participation broadened beyond technology, with value stocks faring better than growth across all size segments. Multiple record highs were reached during the quarter, with the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average peaking on December 24, the NASDAQ Composite reaching several all-time highs earlier in the quarter, and the Russell 2000 hitting a fresh peak on December 11. Volatility spikes in mid-October and mid-November proved short-lived, and the CBOE Volatility Index reached a 2025 low by late December, supported by resilient economic data.

Fourth-quarter gains were underpinned by moderating tariff impacts, robust corporate earnings, and continued monetary easing. Following a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, the Federal Reserve lowered rates twice more during the quarter, with additional 25-basis-point cuts in October and December. Investor sentiment reflected optimism, as Bank of America’s mid-December Global Fund Manager Survey showed the most bullish outlook in three-and-a-half years, with record-low cash levels and elevated allocations to equities and commodities, though concerns persisted around AI bubbles, private credit events, and elevated hyperscaler capital spending. While a prolonged government shutdown introduced some uncertainty, resilient labor market conditions and the absence of major inflation spikes helped support the rally.

The Magnificent Seven complex posted another positive quarter, rising 3.6%, though gains moderated meaningfully from prior quarters. The group outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index and accounted for nearly half of the Index’s gains. Performance within the group was mixed, led by Alphabet, which surged 28.8%, followed by Apple and Amazon. Tesla edged higher but trailed the broader market, while Meta, Microsoft, and NVIDIA declined during the period.

Looking ahead, we remain focused on well-managed companies with durable competitive advantages and attractive growth prospects. While macroeconomic and policy uncertainty persists, we believe maintaining a disciplined, long-term perspective and emphasizing company fundamentals will be essential to navigating the evolving landscape.

Top Contributors/Detractors to Performance

As of 12/31/2025

CONTRIBUTORS

  • Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) is a high-profile private company founded by Elon Musk. The company's primary focus is on developing and launching advanced rockets, satellites, and spacecrafts, with the ambitious long-term goal of making life multi-planetary. SpaceX is generating significant value with the rapid expansion of its Starlink broadband service. The company is successfully deploying a vast constellation of Starlink satellites in Earth's orbit, reporting substantial growth in active users, and regularly deploying new and more efficient hardware technology. Furthermore, SpaceX has established itself as a leading launch provider by offering highly reliable and cost-effective launches, leveraging the company's reusable launch technology. SpaceX capabilities extend to strategic services such as human spaceflight missions. Moreover, SpaceX is making tremendous progress on its newest rocket, Starship, which is the largest, most powerful rocket ever flown. This next-generation vehicle represents a significant leap forward in reusability and space exploration capabilities. We value SpaceX using prices of recent financing transactions.

  • X.AI Holdings Corp. was formed in early 2025 through the merger of X (formerly Twitter) and xAI, an AI company founded by Elon Musk in March 2023 with the mission to "understand the true nature of the universe." This strategic union paired xAI's large language models with X's real-time data and worldwide distribution, speeding Grok's development while providing X with transformative AI tools for search, personalization, and user engagement. Shortly after its founding, xAI released its AI model, Grok, which swiftly emerged as a top-tier contender. Fueling Grok’s performance was the rapid deployment of xAI's data centers: Colossus 1 became operational in just 122 days with 100,000 GPUs, while Colossus 2's first 100,000 GPUs deployed even faster, positioning xAI to pioneer a 1-gigawatt training facility. The upcoming 5th version of Grok will use Colossus 2’s expanded resources and is expected to mark further improvement in the model's capabilities. Such early results demonstrate xAI’s innovation prowess and its prospects for enduring leadership in the highly competitive AI field. We value the stock based on material transaction in shares, leading to stock appreciation.

  • FIGS, Inc. designs and sells scrubwear for health care professionals through a digitally native, direct-to-consumer strategy. Shares rose after the company reported quarterly results that beat expectations and raised its outlook for revenue and profits for the remainder of the year. FIGS’ revenue grew 8% due to robust customer demand for its health care apparel, supported by improving execution and normalizing industry trends. Demand for health care apparel remains largely non-discretionary and replenishment driven. The company also delivered stronger-than-expected profitability, benefiting from meaningful operating leverage while continuing to invest in the business. In addition, FIGS continues to expand its three key growth initiatives: international markets, TEAMS (its enterprise and group ordering business), and retail. Internationally, the company refined its growth strategy and is targeting 60 planned markets by year-end, up from 33. Within TEAMS, FIGS continues to add talent and develop new technology solutions to support growth. In retail, the company plans to open three stores (New York, Houston, and Chicago) with further expansion anticipated into 2026.

 

DETRACTORS

  • Spotify Technology S.A. is a leading global digital music service, offering on-demand audio streaming through paid premium subscriptions and an ad-supported model. Shares of Spotify fell as richly valued stocks across a similar peer basket broadly underperformed. In our view, the company’s fundamentals remain intact. Despite recent price hikes, user growth has continued at a double-digit year-over-year pace, with engagement remaining high. Spotify has proven to be a sticky subscription product with relative resilience in times of consumer uncertainty. The company has been on a path to structurally increase gross margins on an annual basis, aided by its high-margin artist promotions marketplace, growing contribution from podcasts, and ongoing investments in advertising. Spotify also continues to innovate across its platform, improving advertising, expanding into video, developing a Super Premium tier, and taking more market share. We still view Spotify as a long-term winner in music streaming with potential to reach 1 billion-plus monthly active users.

  • CoStar Group, Inc. is the leading provider of information and marketing services to the commercial and residential real estate industries. Shares fell as the company’s net new sales came in below expectations. The stock has been weighed down by significant growth investment in CoStar’s residential product, where sales performance has remained modest. That said, we are encouraged by improving momentum as the company builds out its dedicated residential sales force, enhances its customer targeting, and potentially benefits from changes in Multiple Listing Service practices. We also expect growth in CoStar’s non-residential business to accelerate as sales productivity ramps and the sales team refocuses on core offerings, a trend likely to be amplified by 20% sales force growth in 2025 alone. We believe the value of CoStar’s core non-residential business exceeds the current share price of the stock, suggesting that investors are ascribing little value to the long-term residential opportunity.

Quarterly Attribution Analysis (Institutional Shares)

As of 12/31/2025