Baron Partners Fund: Latest Insights and Commentary

U.S. stocks struggled during the first quarter of 2025 as the shock of Trump’s tariff war erased any optimism that the U.S. stock market or economy would continue to flourish under the new administration, replaced by heightened concerns of a possible recession. The mass layoffs of federal workers added to the confusion. The Magnificent Seven, which had led the market on AI-driven enthusiasm, were even harder hit by tariff uncertainties, as their relatively high valuations made them more exposed to a slowdown. In addition, the January launch of Chinese AI app DeepSeek as a less expensive alternative to U.S.-based AI models had investors questioning whether the massive investments in AI would ultimately produce the expected outsized returns. The Russell Midcap Growth Index declined 7.1%.

GDP growth is widely predicted to slow during 2025, reflecting weakening consumer demand and more cautious corporate spending. Consumer confidence has plummeted. The March 2025 inflation figure came in above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. The Fed has taken a wait-and-see approach as the effects of heightened U.S. policy uncertainty on growth, inflation, and employment play out. It left interest rates unchanged in its first meeting of the year.

Against this challenging backdrop, Baron Partners Fund declined. Communication Services, Real Estate, and Financials holdings contributed the most. Investments within Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology (IT), and Health Care detracted. Second largest contributor X.AI Holding Corp. drove gains within Communication Services. Appreciation within Real Estate was driven by top contributor CoStar Group, Inc. Financials benefited from share price gains in third largest contributor Arch Capital Group, Inc. Consumer Discretionary had a rough quarter, with all five holdings giving up ground, led by Tesla, Inc. and Hyatt Hotels Corporation, the top and second largest detractors, respectively. Third largest detractor Gartner, Inc. drove declines within IT. The sole holding within Health Care, veterinary diagnostics platform IDEXX Laboratories, Inc., detracted as foot traffic to veterinary clinics remained under pressure. 

The second quarter may bring with it as much doubt and volatility as the first quarter, given continued elevated uncertainty around tariffs. After reaching a record high of more than $3.3 trillion in corporate profits in the fourth quarter of 2024, U.S. companies are scrambling to estimate the potential impact of the tariff war. As first quarter earnings season approaches, many observers expect businesses to offer weaker earnings guidance for the rest of the year or withdraw guidance completely.

We are closely monitoring current market conditions while staying focused on company fundamentals -- well-managed businesses with durable competitive advantages and compelling growth prospects at attractive prices -- as we believe this is the best way to generate alpha over the long term, although there are no guarantees.

CONTRIBUTORS

• CoStar Group, Inc. is the leading provider of information and marketing services to the commercial and residential real estate industry. Shares rose on an increase in the productivity of CoStar's sales force and signs of a start to the recovery of the commercial real estate market. Mixed results around net new sales following CoStar's significant investment in residential product Homes.com had pressured shares. We remain encouraged by growth in both traffic and brand awareness for the new product and are optimistic that the build out of a dedicated sales team as well as the potential benefits of changes in Multiple Listing Service practices will improve residential sales momentum. We also believe growth in CoStar’s non-residential business is poised to accelerate. Sales productivity has begun to improve as salespeople return to exclusively selling their core product, and we expect this to be amplified as the sales force expands by 20% or more in 2025. We believe the value of CoStar’s core non-residential business exceeds the share price, implying that investors ascribe negative value to the residential opportunity.
• X.AI Holdings Corp. is developing an AI model "to understand the true nature of the universe." In a short period since its inception, xAI launched its AI model and product, including the third version of the model, Grok 3, which demonstrated top scores in evaluation tests, ahead of other industry-leading AI models. The company also opened the Colossus data center, operating more than 100,000 Graphical Processing Units and considered at the time to be the largest coherent training center in the world. Grok 3 was the first model trained on xAI's Colossus, leveraging more than 10 times the compute used to train Grok 2. Most recently, xAI acquired X, formerly Twitter. The acquisition is expected to improve alignment of corporate objectives, enhance resource allocation, and integrate data, compute, and products. In addition, it provides xAI access to X’s vast, real-time, multimodal data generated by 600 million users worldwide. We value the stock based on recent share transactions, including the recently announced merger.
• Shares of specialty insurer Arch Capital Group Ltd. rebounded from weakness in the prior quarter due to favorable operating trends and the relative stability of insurance stocks in a risk-off market. In the most recent quarter, the company reported better-than-expected earnings, and returns on equity remained strong in the high-teens despite elevated catastrophe losses from Hurricane Milton. As management targets a 15% return on equity over a full cycle, they expect to exceed the target this year given firm market conditions. We continue to own the stock due to Arch’s strong management team and our expectation of significant growth in earnings and book value.

 

DETRACTORS

• Tesla, Inc. manufactures electric vehicles (EVs), solar products, and energy storage solutions alongside the development of advanced real-world AI technologies. Shares fell due to declining analyst expectations for auto delivery volume and margins in 2025 as a result of 1) a refresh of the Model Y, its highest volume vehicle and the world's best selling car in 2024; 2) Elon Musk’s controversial role in the Trump administration; and 3) regulatory changes that could pose potential operational challenges. Despite these headwinds, we remain confident in Tesla’s long-term growth, underpinned by secular trends in EVs and energy storage adoption, a compelling product line, its leading cost structure, and cutting-edge technology. A Model Y refresh alongside the debut of new mass-market models should boost demand. Over time, we expect the political pressure to fade, while Tesla’s AI ambitions—a robotaxi service launching this year and a fast-growing humanoid program—hold the promise of transforming its growth story.
• Shares of global hotelier Hyatt Hotels Corporation detracted as Trump's tariff policies generated heightened uncertainty around the macroeconomic environment. While the volatility during the first quarter is a concern, we believe it will be short term. Business fundamentals were strong, with solid forward bookings numbers as the business transient segment continued its post-pandemic recovery and the group business segment paced up by mid-single-digits. We expect double-digit EBITDA growth in 2025. The company has a strong balance sheet. The planned acquisition of Playa Hotels should be accretive to earnings, especially after Hyatt sells the underlying real estate properties. Once the sale is complete, over 90% of revenue will be fee-based, which should help close Hyatt's multiple discount to peers.
• Shares of Gartner, Inc., a provider of syndicated research, fell on uncertainty around the impact of government spending reductions on the business. We estimate U.S. federal exposure is about 5% of Gartner’s total research contract value, with about half from the Department of Defense and intelligence organizations and half from civilian agencies. While DOGE-driven cost scrutiny is high, we believe Gartner’s services deliver significant value to users, including the potential for hard dollar savings. The private sector business appears well positioned for sustained growth, and management is adept at exercising cost controls to sustain or enhance margins and free cash flow. The company’s balance sheet is in excellent shape, and we expect management to take advantage of this drawdown with aggressive share repurchases.